Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

August 21, 2019 - Comment

2017 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Award for Outstanding AACRAO SEM Research PresentationHigher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest―traditional higher education strongholds―expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and

2017 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Award for Outstanding AACRAO SEM Research Presentation

Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest―traditional higher education strongholds―expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years.

In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years.

Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.

Comments

Anonymous says:

Fascinating data driven research There are so many polemics about the topic of declining enrollments, it’s refreshing to see something that uses evidence to help decision makers do their jobs. It isn’t always the easiest read if you’re not a statistician, but it does explain how and why the demographics are so challenging in many parts of the country. If the numbers are going to create a “new normal” for enrollment, admissions and financial leaders at many colleges, better to be aware of it now that after it’s too late to…

Anonymous says:

This is a must read for anyone interested in the future of higher education. Nathan Grawe has confronted us with the fundamental demographics and statistics that will define the future of higher education and in many ways the future of our nation. For anyone interested in our colleges and in the opportunities for the future of our students, this book is a must read. It is scholarly. It is well written. And it is scary.

Anonymous says:

Five Stars Great book, gives a realistic picture to frame strategy

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